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Rs = suRrender if allowed, otherwise Stand The long-run expectation will not necessarily be the result experienced by any particular gambler. The gambler who plays for a finite period of time may finish with a net win, despite the house advantage, or may go broke much more quickly than the mathematical prediction. Example: The player originally bets $10 and the dealer shows an Ace. The player takes Insurance by betting an additional amount of $5. Suppose the player's hand is 19. The dealer turns up his 'hole card' after the Insurance betting period is over -- and it's a 10-valued card. The player loses his $10 bet. But the Insurance bet wins, so the player gets 2:1 on his $5 Insurance wager and receives $10 (on top of the $5 which are returned to him). Note that the player came out even (i.e. did not lose any money) on that round. Insurance is statistically a bad bet for the player who has no direct knowledge nor estimation (e.g. through card counting) of the dealer's 'hole card' because Insurance has a negative expected value for the player. Even for the player who has been dealt a natural (a two-card 21) it is unwise to take Insurance. In such a case, the dealer usually asks the player "Even money?" This means that instead of 3:2, the player with the natural accepts to be paid off at 2:2. Thus it is exactly the same thing as buying Insurance, losing the Insurance bet and getting paid 3:2 on the natural. (If the player with the natural refuses "even money", and the dealer turns over a natural, it is a tie.) The reason they lose so much is they pile money into the virtual slot machines hoping to land a big payout. They anticipate losing when they sit down and I try my darnedest not to disappoint one of them. - Amarillo Slim Baccarat is a gambling card game. It is supposed to have been introduced into France from Italy during the reign of Charles VIII of France (ruled 1483-1498). There are three accepted variants of the game: baccarat chemin de fer (railway), baccarat banque (or a deux tableaux), and punto banco (or North American baccarat). PokerPoker is a microcosm of all we admire and disdain about capitalism and democracy. It can be rough-hewn or polished, warm or cold, charitable and caring or hard and impersonal. It is fickle and elusive, but ultimately it is fair, and right, and just. - Lou Krieger There are three general categories of casino games: Mathematically, the probability is equal to one that gains will eventually equal losses and a gambler will return to his starting point; however, the expected number of times he has to play is infinite, and so is the expected amount of capital he will need! A similar argument shows that the popular doubling strategy (start with $1, if you lose, bet $2, then $4 etc., until you win) does not work; see St. Petersburg paradox. Situations like these are investigated in the mathematical theory of random walks. This and similar strategies either trade many small wins for a few huge losses (as in this case) or vice versa. With an infinite amount of working capital, one would come out ahead using this strategy; as it stands, one is better off betting a constant amount if only because it makes it easier to estimate how much one stands to lose in an hour or day of play. Roulette Example: The player originally bets $10 and the dealer shows an Ace. The player takes Insurance by betting an additional amount of $5. Suppose the player's hand is 19. The dealer turns up his 'hole card' after the Insurance betting period is over -- and it's a 10-valued card. The player loses his $10 bet. But the Insurance bet wins, so the player gets 2:1 on his $5 Insurance wager and receives $10 (on top of the $5 which are returned to him). Note that the player came out even (i.e. did not lose any money) on that round. They anticipate losing when they sit down and I try my darnedest not to disappoint one of them. - Amarillo Slim
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