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Consider a flipping coin game with two players where each player having 50% chance of winning each flip. After a flip the loser transfers one penny to the winner. The game ends when one player has all the pennies. If the number of flips is infinite, the probability that the game will eventually end is 100%. If player one has n1 pennies and player two n2 pennies , the chances P1 and P2 that players one and two, respectively, will end penniless are: When the probability of each event is not even, such as with a loaded die, a number which has come up more often in the past may very well continue to do so, if that number is favored by the weighting of the dice. This has been dubbed Nerd's Gullibility Fallacy -- assuming the coin indeed is fair and the gamblers are honest when it isn't the case. This is an example of Hume's principle: twenty times tails on row implies that it is far more likely that the premise of a fair coin is wrong and coin is forged, than that the initial premise is correct and the next toss will be fifty-fifty heads or tails. Asian stud [edit] Does the method work? The player's options for playing his or her hand are: dealer hits a soft seventeen (ace-six, which can play as seven or seventeen) Double down: Double the wager, take exactly one more card, and then stand. Notice that the gambler's fallacy is quite different from the following path of reasoning (which comes to the opposite conclusion): the coin comes up heads more often than tails, so it is not a fair coin, so I will bet that the next toss will be heads also. This is not fallacious, though the first step - the argument from a finite number of observations to a statement of likelihood - is a very delicate matter, and is itself prone to fallacies of its own peculiar kind. [edit] PokerRoom.com. Much as I love Bodog for their Mac-compatible casino and sportsbook, their poker room doesn't work on Macs. But there's a good alternative: PokerRoom.com. You can play for fake money or real money right in Safari. The interface is pretty clean and easy, too. I had zero problems, from signup to deposit to live-action play. Of course it works for skanky-ass Windows computers, too. (visit PokerRoom.com) Consider a flipping coin game with two players where each player having 50% chance of winning each flip. After a flip the loser transfers one penny to the winner. The game ends when one player has all the pennies. If the number of flips is infinite, the probability that the game will eventually end is 100%. If player one has n1 pennies and player two n2 pennies , the chances P1 and P2 that players one and two, respectively, will end penniless are: At any time during the first or subsequent betting rounds, if any player makes a bet, all other players are required to match it or to surrender their cards and forfeit their interest in the pot. If one player bets and no other player chooses to match the bet, the deal ends immediately, the bettor is awarded the pot, no cards are shown, and the next deal begins. This is what makes bluffing possible, and is a primary feature of the game that distinguishes it from other vying games and from other games that make use of poker hand rankings. [edit] A random event is less likely to occur because it recently happened. You flip a fair coin 20 times and it comes up heads every time. What is the probability it will come up tails next time? (Answer: 0.5)
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